Given the empirical strengths of the study, namely its preregistration, multi-lab approach, high power, and Bayesian analysis used, this failed replication questions the validity and robustness of the original findings. The results indicate that the data favored the null effect (i.e., absence of retroactive avoidance) with a BF 01 = 4.38. The research presented here represents an attempt to exactly replicate the original effect with a high-power ( N = 2004) preregistered multi-lab study. Evidence for the effect, though significant, was meager and anecdotal, Bayes factor (BF 10) = 2.
PRIMEFILES REDDIT SERIES
The final study in that series used a sophisticated quantum-based random stimulus selection procedure and implemented the most severe test of retroactive avoidance within this series. A series of seven experiments published in 2014 in the Journal of Consciousness Studies (Maier et al., 2014) tested the influence of randomly drawn future negative picture presentations on avoidance responses based on key presses preceding them. Preliminary evidence of “retroactive avoidance” has been published in mainstream psychological journals and started a heated debate about the robustness and the true existence of this effect. This phenomenon is supposed to challenge the common view of the arrow of time and the direction of causality. Specifically, it refers to the anticipatory avoidance of aversive stimuli that were unpredictable through random selection after the response. The term “retroactive avoidance” refers to a special class of effects of future stimulus presentations on past behavioral responses.
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